In the face of civil war, Sudan needs to standMay 2nd, 2023
by Chimaobi Omeye
Africa’s third-largest country by land mass is very close to a deadly civil war after weeks of unrest and killings.
On either side of the unrest are the official Sudanese Armed Forces under the leadership of Abdel Fattah al-Burhan who currently serves as the de facto leader of the country, and the Rapid Support Force (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The former close friends are now the greatest enemies trying to steal power and override each other at the expense of the peaceful people of Sudan.
Since the downfall of Omar al-Bashir, the longest leader of the country, Sudan has yet to experience a sense of lasting peace. The Armed Forces under Al-Burhan have been promising a peaceful transition of power to the civilian political parties, but they seem to want a share of power no matter what. Both Al-Burhan and Dagalo were fully involved in ousting Al-Bashir even though Dagalo and his Rapid Support Forces were created and fully built by Omar al-Bashir.
It has been reported that the crises came about because Al-Burham felt sooner or later, he would suffer the same fate as Al-Bashir and be ousted by Dagalo. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan therefore planned to dissolve the RSF and weaken his second-in-command Dagalo.
It has been alleged that the crisis is being fuelled by foreign powers, following reports that there are plans by the Russian Federation to build a naval base in the Sudan area of the Red Sea.
The media has also reported that there is evidence that the Russian Wagner Group has been supplying the RSF with missiles, while some powerful Western countries, not comfortable with this plan, have also been providing arms and financial support.
Sudanese people must decide the fate of their fatherland and external or internal rankles should be resolved through diplomacy only. Sudan is fast becoming a failed nation even with her rich solid minerals and human talent. A failed Sudan will result in a disturbed Africa considering its strategic position.
I strongly believe that Africa must team up together and find a lasting solution for its uncountable issues from Sudan to Nigeria to Libya and Ethiopia, etc. These are large and powerful nations that play a huge role in the economic stability of the continent.– Chimaobi Omeye
A failed Sudan will bring about the following crises which should be avoided by all means:
- Rapid rise in terrorism: I suspect a great rise in terror within and outside Sudan if this crisis is not managed well immediately. There are reports of an uprising within the already devastated Darfur region where General Dagalo hails from. Africanews reported on Thursday how fighters are already operating within the region causing mayhem and this is as a result of the struggle for control of the area which is vital after Khartoum. There will be a proliferation of arms especially at the hands of non-state actors. I also believe terrorist groups such as Boko Haram, the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP), and Al-Quaeda with its powerful affiliate Al-Shabab that have ravaged the horn of Africa will be boosted with a war-torn Sudan. Somalia is a typical example of how a country can go ahead and become very unstable after civil wars and its effect within nearby countries as can be seen in the activities of Al-Shabab in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan. In West Africa, Africa’s biggest economy Nigeria might be hit with more terror from Boko Haram and ISWAP if care is not taken especially from the Chadian axis. The only gleam of hope lies in the Chadian military effort to protect their borders, but this requires joint efforts from all countries involved.
- Refugee Crisis: Sudanese people and foreigners are already evacuating the almost war-torn country, and this will be followed by huge pressure on poor countries within. Egypt, Chad, Djibouti, Eritrea, South Sudan, etc. will most likely experience most of the incoming refugees from Sudan but no close by country is free. Europe should also expect a crisis as can be seen with the Libyan experience as stable countries within the Mediterranean have always served as police guards to the borders with Europe. But how long this will these borders stand if tested?
- Poverty, Food crisis, and Inflation: Economies will be overstretched resulting in poverty, lack of food and clean water, inflation, and eventually deaths. A worse situation bigger than that of Ukraine could be seen.
Africa as a continent is not ready for this crisis and all its problems. We have seen an unstable Nigeria with its questioned elections and battle with insecurity; an unstable Congo, Somalia, Mozambique, etc. which shows the continent is already over-stretched. All efforts must be put in place for Sudan to stand. Russia, America, the Chinese, and other interests should be secondary as the lives and safety of the people of Sudan must be primary and paramount.
As usual, African Union (AU) has failed again in managing this long-expected crisis which even brings to question its usefulness to the continent. Diplomacy must be the key as the two Generals have to understand that a peaceful Sudan is nothing but a win-win for all. You must first have a people before leadership. Ceasefires should be respected by both groups and AU, the UN should continue their diplomatic discussions, and peace restored in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan.
A standing, stronger and bigger Sudan is absolutely what the Sudanese people and the African continent need now, and all efforts must be made to save the republic.