More Than Just Numbers

by Adedoyin Ajayi

The will to live, to subsist is perhaps one of the strongest desires in mankind. The world population totaled eight billion in November 2022, and is projected to peak at over ten billion in mid-2080s. This astronomical rise is staggering, considering the world figure was a mere 2.5 billion in 1950. Rising urbanisation, higher fertility rates, and longer life expectancies are touted as some of the reasons behind the rise in population worldwide.

Humanity has continued to exist long after the Malthusian view of humans fading away into extinction. Thomas Malthus’ idea of population pointed to a rather pessimistic future of mankind due to his perceived disproportionate increase of food and of population respectively. While many have criticized the myopic view of the theory in its failure to anticipate the impact of technology in amplifying food production, it is baffling that Malthus saw humans only as consumers, not creators.

A baby comes to the world not only with a mouth and a stomach, but also with a pair of hands.

Edwin Cannan, British Economist

We are far more than consumers, looting, and pillaging everything that comes our way. Humans are creators. We build, we invent, and we develop. In Cannan’s words, we are more than “a mouth and a stomach.”

Economist Alfred Marshall regarded labour in the form of humans as the “active factor of production.” This is because without the efforts of man to corral the other factors such as land and capital, they lie fallow, untapped. Hence, they are “passive factors of production.” Therefore, regardless of the abundance of physical and natural resources a country might have, its true wealth is in human resources. Without requisite, adequate, and skilled humans to put the passive factors to productive use, they are redundant.

It is evident that this thread of thought is behind the efforts of the aforementioned countries to stem the unpleasant tide of declining population. A number of European nations like Italy, Portugal, Poland, and Romania have been experiencing declining population due to falling birth rates. In Asia, Japan’s population has been shrinking for over a decade due to a number of factors, the aversion of young people to marriage and lower fertility rates included. The fertility rate stands at 1.4 births per woman, less than the projected 2 births needed to ensure continuity of the population. According to the BBC, given the current negative population growth rate in Japan, the Asian nation’s population will plummet to 53 million by 2100, a massive drop from 128 million in 2017.

The consequences of this prolonged phenomenon are greatly inimical to the economic fortunes of the Asian nation. First this would mean the prospect of a lower labour force (fewer hands to work and a greater dependency ratio). From this, it creates a severe pressure on the working class to keep economic growth up. The domino effect is complete when a smaller gross domestic product (GDP) ensues.

Bearing this in mind, it is little surprise that the government of these countries have sought to raise population levels through a variety of means – higher salaries to younger people to encourage them into marrying, and raising subsidies for education alongside increased access to childcare services.

The Malthusian theory of population categorized humans as consumers only. However, humans are more than that. We create. Malthus neglected the possibilities of increased production and higher ingenuity which more numbers can bring. We are responsible for many of the world’s problems – environmental degradation easily comes to mind. Ironically, we also have the solution to the issues that plague our planet. The continual efforts in Japan and in Italy battling declining population certainly strengthen the case for the need of humans on earth.

Admittedly, uncontrolled population increase can be detrimental for countries; nonetheless, a middle ground has to be toed in order to refrain from referring to population as a problem to be handled.                                                                           

Without a doubt, humanity is earth’s most valuable resource, and we are more than mere numbers rising geometrically, unchecked, towards doom, as Malthus believed.